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分析称最快6月迎来降准降息

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年10月19日 12:07:51
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(  业)(内)(人)(士)(表)(示)(,低)(通)(胀)(压)(力)(仍)(然)(偏)(大)(,最)(快)(6月)(份)(迎)(来)(降)(准)(降)(息)(
  今)(日)(,国)(家)(统)(计)(局)(将)(发)(布)(5月)(份)(居)(民)(消)(费)(价)(格)(指)(数)((CPI)和)(工)(业)(生)(产)(者)(出)(厂)(价)(格)(指)(数)((PPI)。多)(家)(机)(构)(预)(测)(CPI同)(比)(增)(长)(可)(能)(在)(1.3%至)(1.4%之)(间)(,物)(价)(增)(长)(再)(次)(减)(速)(说)(明)(当)(前)(我)(国)(低)(通)(胀)(压)(力)(仍)(然)(偏)(大)(,最)(快)(6月)(份)(迎)(来)(降)(准)(降)(息)(。
  中)(投)(顾)(问)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(研)(究)(员)(白)(朋)(鸣)(在)(接)(受)(《证)(券)(日)(报)(》记)(者)(采)(访)(时)(表)(示)(,我)(国)(5月)(份)(前)(三)(周)(禽)(类)(、蛋)(类)(、蔬)(菜)(类)(食)(品)(价)(格)(均)(有)(所)(回)(落)(,5月)(份)(翘)(尾)(因)(素)(约)(为)(0.66%,整)(体)(来)(看)(,5月)(份)(CPI指)(数)(同)(比)(涨)(幅)(或)(在)(1.2%至)(1.5%之)(间)(。5月)(份)(钢)(铁)(价)(格)(降)(幅)(较)(大)(,而)(且)(能)(源)(、建)(材)(、纺)(织)(等)(价)(格)(均)(有)(所)(下)(滑)(,5月)(份)(PPI同)(比)(或)(出)(现)(4.3%至)(4.6%的)(降)(幅)(。
  “高)(频)(指)(标)(显)(现)(经)(济)(生)(产)(增)(长)(势)(头)(延)(续)(疲)(弱)(。发)(电)(量)(单)(周)(同)(比)(跌)(幅)(扩)(大)(,产)(能)(利)(用)(率)(延)(续)(下)(行)(,宽)(松)(政)(策)(并)(未)(有)(效)(推)(动)(生)(产)(改)(善)(。而)(房)(地)(产)(销)(售)(面)(积)(持)(续)(回)(升)(,30大)(中)(城)(市)(销)(售)(面)(积)(同)(比)(涨)(幅)(继)(续)(保)(持)(在)(30%左)(右)(。宽)(松)(政)(策)(下)(需)(求)(将)(持)(续)(改)(善)(,但)(由)(于)(向)(投)(资)(传)(导)(的)(不)(确)(定)(性)(,经)(济)(下)(行)(压)(力)(依)(然)(延)(续)(。”光)(大)(证)(券)(首)(席)(宏)(观)(分)(析)(师)(徐)(高)(表)(示)(。
  白)(朋)(鸣)(告)(诉)(记)(者)(,从)(当)(前)(经)(济)(形)(势)(来)(看)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(下)(行)(压)(力)(继)(续)(增)(大)(,但)(是)(货)(币)(政)(策)(是)(否)(会)(放)(松)(还)(有)(较)(大)(不)(确)(定)(性)(。中)(国)(未)(来)(经)(济)(走)(势)(前)(景)(乐)(观)(。在)(“一)(带)(一)(路)(”经)(济)(战)(略)(的)(发)(展)(下)(,有)(利)(于)(将)(我)(国)(的)(过)(剩)(产)(能)(转)(移)(至)(国)(外)(,扩)(大)(对)(新)(兴)(国)(家)(的)(出)(口)(规)(模)(。同)(时)(,我)(国)(当)(前)(正)(在)(大)(力)(发)(展)(自)(贸)(区)(,这)(有)(助)(于)(将)(国)(外)(消)(费)(引)(导)(至)(国)(内)(。另)(外)(,亚)(投)(行)(、丝)(路)(基)(金)(等)(国)(际)(性)(金)(融)(机)(构)(的)(成)(立)(,将)(增)(强)(我)(国)(的)(金)(融)(影)(响)(力)(。我)(国)(经)(济)(发)(展)(正)(步)(入)(良)(性)(循)(环)(,效)(果)(或)(将)(在)(未)(来)(一)(两)(年)(逐)(渐)(显)(现)(。
  徐)(高)(表)(示)(,未)(来)(政)(策)(将)(着)(力)(于)(引)(导)(金)(融)(体)(系)(资)(金)(流)(入)(实)(体)(经)(济)(。金)(融)(体)(系)(陷)(入)(流)(动)(性)(陷)(阱)(与)(实)(体)(经)(济)(利)(率)(持)(续)(偏)(高)(形)(成)(反)(差)(。在)(向)(实)(体)(经)(济)(的)(流)(动)(性)(投)(放)(途)(径)(没)(有)(打)(通)(之)(前)(,金)(融)(市)(场)(流)(动)(性)(陷)(阱)(很)(难)(消)(除)(,未)(来)(政)(策)(将)(更)(多)(注)(重)(于)(引)(导)(金)(融)(体)(系)(资)(金)(进)(入)(实)(体)(经)(济)(。
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